#108 - Defending the Experts

I really hate self-indulgent episodes like this. You don't get credibility as an expert because of how smart you think you are or how stupid you think everyone else is. You get credibility by showing a pattern of being right. Make specific predictions, define a timeframe, and keep track. People get tired of self-appointed experts because they basically just share basically opinions and commentary under the guise of authority. How about "If the US does X, within six months, I predict there is a x% chance that North Korea will do Y." "If this bill is passed, I predict a 33-50% decrease in metric X within 2 years." "If Trump isn't impeached by year X, then by year X+3, there will our diplomatic relationships will be hurt as measured by a Y% decrease in trade of this resource."

/r/samharris Thread Link - samharris.org