Why 12 points don't guarantee qualification (for the CL knockout stage) but you could conceivably qualify with 4

More tidbits for whoever's interested!

  • It's possible to be a group winner with 6 points. The group stage just needs to have all draws, and the winning team needs to have a higher-scoring draw away than at home against all 3 opponents. Very weird, but possible.
  • We saw how 15 points need not guarantee being a group winner (e.g. if you are 5-0-1 and the team you lose to is also a 5-0-1). It turns out that 14 points (being 4-2-0) need not guarantee 1st place as well.
    • However, if you have 14 points, and your draws are against two different teams, then you are guaranteed 1st! Just imagine United going 1W 1D against PSG and Leipzig and 2W against Basaksehir.
  • It's possible to finish 3rd with as much as 12 points (as we mentioned) or as low as 2 points (if you are 0-2-4 and your two draws are both against another team at 0-2-4)
  • It's possible to finish 4th with as much as 9 points - this could happen if everyone gets 9 points, and you lose out on the head-to-head goals scored or something.

To summarize (do you see the pattern!)

Position 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Highest possible points 18 15 12 9
Lowest possible points 6 4 2 0

(and from the table above:

  • minimum number of points to guarantee 1st = 1 + highest possible points while finishing 2nd,
  • minimum number of points to guarantee 2nd = 1 + highest possible points while finishing 3rd, and
  • minimum number of points to guarantee 3rd = 1 + highest possible points while finishing 4th)
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