69% forex movement prediction success on back testing .. what now?

As counter-intuitive as it seems, 69% is not a high probability.

For example, say you've found that the value of a currency pair movement in a certain time frame is pretty close to being normally distributed about $0. The reason that matters is it modifies the probability of your profit estimate. Say you have a 69% accurate entry indicator. Well that's potentially useful, but now you need to consider what your target movement is. For example, say you have a target movement of (absolute value) 1 pip because you've found that according to historical movement data, a 1 pip movement occurs 60% of the time (regardless if that move is upwards or downwards. You would now need to modify your overall probability estimate to be 0.690.60 = 0.414% probability. Now say you want to further identify if that 1 pip movement is a moving up or down. Say historical data says that 80% of the time, that 1 pip movement was an upward move, and 20% of the time it was a downward movement. Your probability estimate of a profitable trade on, say, the upward movement, is now 0.690.60*0.80 = 0.3312% likely.

It's probably more obvious now why lot of traders will shoot for a 90%+ reliable indicators. Anything sub 90% will likely result in trading system that is statistically weak. I would say keep exploring the ideas you've developed and see if you can get the compounded probability to be higher than 50%.

/r/algotrading Thread