Closer to the mean yes, but I think people believe that touchdown regression means that a player will get fewer than average touchdowns to "make up" for the extra ones from the previous year. Fact of the matter is if a player gets a lot of touchdowns, it's actually more likely in the next year they will also have above average touchdowns, simply because they have done it before.

Look at Julio Jones. There's a reason why he has a reputation for not scoring. Because his playstyle lends itself to not scoring a whole lot. I am saying that a player like Aaron Jones might have a playstyle and role that lends itself to scoring more often, and we should not look at a players touchdowns and just assume that it will regress to the mean next year.