2020 AFL RECORD: 0-0-0
Hey guys, Expert Betting Network here. Hope everyone is coping with the sports lockdown better than we are! EBN is usually a paid subscription data investing service, but we would like to provide content and picks for this AFL season for free, as it is a new sport to our company and we are using this down time to test data in new sports. We had our programming team devise a predictive model this week and will be updating the data as the season proceeds. Please follow along this season, and we hope to show you profitable results! Week 1 picks, simulated scores, write-ups:
RICHMOND TIGERS -20.5: 1 UNIT (-115)
Expert Betting Network Simulated Score - Richmond 87, Carlton 68
Our predictive model has simulated a 19-point victory for the Richmond Tigers, so why are we supporting them on a -20.5 line? The Carlton Blues are missing their 3 best scoring forwards in Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Eddie Betts. These three players accounted for 82 of their 231 goals last season (34.6%). Carlton was already abysmal offensively in 2019 ranking 15th out of 18 teams in points per game. Expect this further significant loss of firepower to play the difference in pushing Richmond towards the -20.5 point cover. Richmond won both meetings versus Carlton last season by an average combined point differential of +30.5 points per game. Carlton should prove to be significantly out-classed in this match and we will be supporting the more elite team in the defending champions Richmond.
WESTERN BULLDOGS +3: 1 UNIT (-115) WESTERN BULLDOGS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+100)
Expert Betting Network Simulated Score - Western 79, Collingwood 77
Collingwood Magpies are one of the most reputable teams in the AFL, but the Western Bulldogs are a team on the rise. They surged from 15th on the league ladder halfway through the season in 2019, before making it all the way to the finals series, where they lost to eventual Grand Finalists Western Sydney. Western Bulldogs are known to have the best midfield in the AFL, led by 2019's Champion Player of the Year in Marcus Bontempelli. A deep run to the finals will be considered a failure for both of these teams in 2020. Our model has simulated a 2-point victory for the Western Bulldogs. Let's capitalize on the plus points and the plus moneyline value in this one.
ESSENDON BOMBERS -14.5: 1 UNIT (-115)
Expert Betting Network Simulated Score: Essendon 88, Fremantle 72
Our predictive model has simulated a 16-point victory for Essendon, making the Bombers a worthy value investment at -14.5. Fremantle is a sub-par team who finished 13th out of 18 teams last season. They are an offensively challenged team which lacks depth. They ranked 16th in points per game last season and they rely heavily on two players in Michael Walter and Nathan Fyfe who combined for only 56 goals last season. Fremantle fired long-time coach of 8 years Ross Lyon in the off-season and will have a completely new-look team full of inexperience. Fremantle has done little to address their depth issue and a solid up-and-coming team in Essendon which finished 8th out of 18 teams last season should have their way in this one.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY GIANTS -10: 1 UNIT (-115)
Expert Betting Network Simulated Score: GWS 84, Geelong 70
Our predictive model has simulated a 12-point victory for the Greater Western Sydney (GWS) Giants, giving us a value lean on the -10 line over the Geelong Cats. Based on their abysmal pre-season performances going 0-2 with a -72 point differential (-36 points per game), Geelong is looking like an early candidate to be a bottom-feeder in the AFL in 2020. GWS was an above-average team in 2019 who finished 6th out of 18 teams, and look to continue their progression in 2020. GWS has the most dangerous offensive player in the AFL in Jeremy Cameron who led the league in goals in 2019 with 76 (3.14 goals per game).
HAWTHORN HAWKS +4: 1 UNIT (-115) HAWTHORN HAWKS MONEYLINE: +105 (1 UNIT)
Expert Betting Network Simulated Score: Hawthorn 79, Brisbane 77
We like the home field advantage for Hawthorn here and our model has simulated a 2-point victory for the Hawks, making them a worthy investment at +4 and on the moneyline. 10 of the last 14 games between these two clubs have been played with a Brisbane home advantage, so the home field is a nice refreshing change for Hawthorn in this match. In 50 all-time matchups between the Hawks and Lions, Hawthorn has a favorable 30-20 (60%) record, despite not having home field advantage since 2012. Hawthorn's strength is an emerging elite defense. Despite facing the toughest QOC (Quality of Competition) in 2019, they allowed the 3rd least amount of points against. Their average points against per game of 72.8 last season was also the 3rd best in the AFL and their second lowest team total since 1971.
MELBOURNE DEMONS +22.5: 1 UNIT (-115)
Expert Betting Network Simulated Score: West Coast 90, Melbourne 70
Our predictive model has simulated a 20-point victory for West Coast over Melbourne, making the Demons a worthy value investment at +22.5. 2019 saw a big discrepancy in these teams with West Coast finishing 5th and Melbourne at the bottom at 17th, explaining this large opening spread. However, the AFL is a volatile league year-by-year and the pre-season saw extremely different results with the Demons going 2-0 with a +65 point differential (32.5 points per game) and West Coast going 0-2 with a -8 point differential (-4 points per game). Not to look too much into pre-season, but this total appears to be too high based on even 2019 data. Melbourne made it to the AFL Semi-Finals in 2018, meaning 2019 was likely an anomaly of a very down season. +22.5 points is a lot of cushion after an extremely impressive pre-season from a Demons team who are looking to bounce back to their 2018 winning ways.
BOL, @ExpertBettingNetwork