"Also I'm not discounting general strategy of negotiations, or relying on skulls." Not discounting means that you are acknowledging it as a strategy, no? At least putting it on par with negotiating, which I view as the main point of the game
I am not discounting general the general strategy of negotiations.
I am also not relying on skulls.
Is that better?
All your other comments boil down to, you don't like a little push your luck in the game. I do. I think you're over exaggerating the amount of effect the tob cards have on the outcome, and you probably think I'm under exaggerating it. My guess is that you haven't played with them more than a couple times, and/or you're having memory bias on the outcomes you pulled.
They don't ruin house card selections, nor do they make battles completely random. They make your opponents house card selection less predictable, which I like, and they make the battles less about just arithmetic, which I like. We just wouldn't like to play this game together as we have different goals for our game experience. I don't think there is anything wrong with either style, I just have my preference.
With respect to theme, (and keeping in mind I recommend removing the 3s from the deck) a max 0-2 swing in luck is absolutely possible in ASOIF. I'd say Robb even received a 0-3 when Karstark murdered the hostages. He lost right there. Either allow a subordinate to openly disrespect him and disobey his orders, or show everyone else that he is in charge. I probably wouldn't have executed Karsrark, but the alternative was bad too. His two most powerful bannermen (Karstark and Bolton) has been subtly/moderately undermining him. He needed to show strength. His followers weren't fans of the books, they were people who put their lives and families at risk for a 16 year old boy. He needed to maintain their respect. His decision was a choice, the situation was a TOB.
Also, (/s "Stannis gets stuck in a snow storm"), that's shit luck. Another persons fleet hits a sea storm and they lose most of their ships. I think fall storms screw over a few people actually. I see this as more what tob represents. Not the big backstabs, but just a 0-1 change due to weather. (Remember most pulls are statistically 0-0, even with the blades repull power)