If you choose to live by that logic throughout your entire life, then you cannot be sure that anything is true,

Not accurate at all but it does make it much more difficult to find what is "true". Believe me, I've had many experiences of being shown some new truth that overturned some previously held truth. When you have this happen enough in your life, you realize that life is much more complicated.

since your limited ability to analyze reality might lead you to make wrong conclusions.

hahaha ok...if it makes you feel better to believe that.

That would mean any conclusion would be equally likely and unlikely.

Not accurate. You're completely missing how our own perceptions can blind us to an even greater truth.

That means there's no real reason to even believe your analogy about the elephant is even true.

The analogy holds and it's not subject to belief. It does however require you to analyze perceptions.

It's a stupid analogy because it defeats itself and anything it ever tries to prove.

Vacuous statement and again incorrect.