I have been considering the potential impact of the release of Module 9, and my conclusion is that it will lead to a 10-15% drop in the number of players, with a corresponding loss in revenue.
Let's start with the positive things. Mod 9 introduces a couple of great features that players have been asking for:
Mount System
I really like the new mount system - for me that is by far the best part of Mod 9. I can ride the mount I want, based on its look, and the speed of my fastest mount, and with the equip bonus I prefer. The mounts will not take up bank or inventory space any longer, and while I have not been able to test the insignia, I understand that while the bonuses are small, they seem fairly well thought out. Moreover, the way the system is designed, it makes good business sense - it encourages people to spend Zen, either on purple mounts or on keys to open lockboxes in the hope of getting those elusive legendary mounts. Good job - whoever designed the mount system actually understands how to give people what they want in a way that makes business sense - a win/win situation.
The queue system
While the new queue system will not translate into increased Zen sales, it will make people happier - players can now do "guild-only" Tiamat runs, or be certain they will be matched with the "right" people for Demogorgon. Allowing prople to select who they play with fixes one of my major issues. So, overall, a good job - and although, as I said, there is no direct profit in this, happier customers are probably more likely to spend money than frustrated ones.
Stronghold cost reductions
Overall good, although it is a bit flawed - influence will continue to be a bottleneck, and some of the crafting tasks are just plain silly and need rework - nobody is going to do the gold-making Alchemy task when the materials sell for much more than the gold you get.
That's it for the positive side. Now look at the negatives:
Killing the foundry
Most of the foundry authors I know got really frustrated, and several have said that they will quit the game. I wish you would have listened to your playerbase regarding this. The foundry has the potential to provide an endless stream of content (of variable quality, but that's true for your own content as well), however - there are three major issues, and by saying you are not going to do anything about them, you have effectively killed the foundry. The effects may not be obvious right away, but I am going to predict a steep decline in the number of new "real" foundries as the number of creators dwindles.
For the record, the three major issues are (1) a small number of serious bugs (and a pile of smaller bugs we can live with), (2) lack of updated (mod 5+) resources and (3) "rewards" that actively discourage people from playing foundries.
Endgame content
asterdahl said:
Castle Never and the Maze Engine campaign are the pieces of content that we are targeting at endgame players this module.
We have a major communication failure here. The Maze Engine is not endgame content at all - it is (much welcome) leveling content, which hopefully will fill the gap that exists between levels 60 and 70 - where currently people run out of quests at around level 67 and have to grind vigilance quests for the last few levels. I will play through it to get the boons, but once I have the boons, I doubt I will touch this content more. It is too easy, and that makes it boring - it is not "endgame" content.
Castle Never on the other hand....now, that could have had the potential to be true endgame content, but quite frankly, I think you made the mistake of making it too easy. I would really, really recommend beefing up the difficulty a bit and making it require, say, TiL 2500 at least. What I would really love, of course, would be to get the "old" CN back, just a lot harder, with BoE equipment that I could sell for a profit - that would make it true "endgame" content - now, I understand that is not an option, but please, please, consider implementing something that could be considered a real challenge.
With the mounts and new boons making characters even stronger than before, the problem of boredom will just become more severe - you give us all those great ways to make our characters stronger, but then you do not give us any content that actually requires that strength. If players feel there is no challenge left in the game, they become bored, and bored players are not good customers.
The returning dungeons
This is the big one. You have seen the flood of negative feedback on the forums and while people here do not speak for every player in the game, I think it is fairly safe to say that what you are planning is generally considered to be a massive failure to listen to the players, and this, above anything else is what is going to drive people away. Based on the discussion in my (typical) guild and the feedback I see on the official forums and on reddit, I am predicting a 10% drop.
Are you saying 96% of the players are wrong? http://www.arcgames.com/en/forums/neverwinter#/discussion/1211758/do-you-want-epic-or-leveling-dungeons
People have been waiting for the dungeons to return, but what we are getting is not what we were waiting for. This, above anything else, is what will cause your player numbers to shrink after you release mod 9.