Addressing the Needs
“The best move you can make in negotiation is to think of an incentive the other person hasn't even thought of - and then meet it.” – Eli Broad
I'm a crazy Knicks (NYK) fan, with a soft spot for New Orleans (NO) and a solution for Memphis (MEM). If you’re intrigued, I’ll try to keep this short and concise for your digestion in these turbulent times.
Current status of things as of the end of January:
o AD has requested a trade, Holiday has mentioned his reason for staying was AD
o Both take up most contract space on the team
o One is easily movable (Davis) and the other would take maneuvering due to contract (Holiday)
o Conley Jr. is a great floor general with a bad contract
o Gasol is a declining big on a worse contract, both aging but Conley still holds value
o Good draft position, THJ and Lee are getting looks from contenders that need shooting
o KP is coming off injury, his status remains trending positively but totally uncertain
Before we move forward, this plan I had involved immensely benefits the Knicks for one year (assuming the players mesh well and KP is 100%). Sure it may seem to benefit but if you’re willing to stick around for the full picture, I believe this can do all teams good in the long run. With that I present the trade.
Note: What I’m presenting works out money wise, based on tradenba.com
http://tradenba.com/trades/rko5J_C7V (Below is a snip after hitting “try trade”)
Remember the needs, remember what your team needs.
a. They also get a true point guard with excellent defense and an expiring contract
b. Speeds up the rebuild without losing draft position
a. AD and Conley obviously make the team better
b. AD is also a flight risk, remember he’s doing what’s best for him and NO
c. Putting too much in a deal will also guarantee another star without enough around him to succeed (see Carmelo Anthony)
d. Conley, AD, and KP have had injury issues if not throughout their career’s, surely of late
e. Chemistry is a huge unknown
a. Saving NO and keeping and growing the fan base will involve a real look in possibilities to not only gain a lot of picks, but to also insure that you can maintain a “tank” status at least for 2 years for draft position
b. Net a bit of Cap Space, a future first and more movable assets
c. Holiday, like Conley is overrated to the greater NBA audience. THJ and Lee still retain their trade value and while they’re not perfect for contract or age, contenders are still going to bite. I’ve found 5 teams in the bottom 15 this season in 3P%, excluding the Lakers* Also note this draft is very TOP heavy, not a lot of depth safer bet on the future
*I’m not included screen shots, just a link and the breakdown. Remember after clicking, please press “try trade.” THJ and Lee lose no value in being traded. I use the NYK to go through the trades, but the scenarios should all work out for NO. In all situations NO has 2 first rounder’s in 2020 (NYK)
a. MIL: THJ
i. MIL needs another spacer to truly unlock its potential
b. NO: Thon Maker (wants out + bigger role), and Eric Bledsoe
i. It is hard to do this but NO could include Payton in exchange for a 2020 2nd rounder
ii. This will leave NO with either 3 or 4 picks in 2020
a. TOR: THJ and Lee
i. Better spacing for Kawhi and free themselves from the bad contract of Ibaka
b. NO: Ibaka and VanVleet
i. NO is in or should be now at this point, full tank mode
a. UTA: THJ
i. Serious upgrade on the wing to help Mitchell and Rubio on offense
b. NO: Exum, Sefolosha, and 2020 1st rounder
i. First rounder in 2020 is a sweetener for taking two underwhelming players
ii. This can potentially yield 4 picks in 2020, 3 in the first
a. OKC: THJ
i. More spacing on a team that needs it. Might be THJ best fit
b. NO: Alex Abrines and Dennis Schroder
i. Cover Point for a few years while still committing to the tank
a. DET: THJ and LEE
i. Needed spacing, and overall better players
b. NO: Langston Galloway and Reggie Jackson + their 2019 first
i. The pick serves as compensation for taking the swap for better players and a chance at the post season. Also more control for THJ and Lee for DET
Now if you’re still with me, well first thank you. Either you’re brave, annoyed, or maybe I have a couple points. Something to note, this draft is NOT deep, and mortgaging everything for at most 2-3 future all-stars, it doesn’t make sense.
My last point will touch on what those of you might be thinking, DRAFT PICKS.
First and foremost, this is a gamble. It is not like other drafts and this requires thinking differently. Players aside, moving forward, instead of the power being in the top 3, it is now spread between the top 6. What I mean is that the Top six teams in the draft have a range of 14% to 9% chance of getting the first draft pick. Those bottom six teams equal or make up a 75% (74% actual percentage). Based on the current standings there are 2 clear tiers.
Tier 1: 12 wins or less. These teams would have to go above and behind to move out of the bottom six teams
Tier 2: 22 wins or less. These teams can either be trying to compete or trying to bottom out in the second half; *have stated they’re not tanking, or trying to make the post season
A team breaking from one tier to another is terribly small. The Hawks seem to be teetering between waiting for others to commit one way or another. They have assets and the ability to eat bad salaries. Overall they don’t seem overly concerned with being in the first tier. Another thing to note is with the first proposed trade, it’s attractive to keep our position but NYK would have to blatantly try to remain within the first tier. We’ll fall into wins with that acquisitions. Lastly, these trades make both teams, well worse overall, which is we’re addressing what each of needs… we all walk away winners and losers. The mix in NYK could fall flat and the combination could be terrible. NO may not be able to move the assists although this does make picks easier to attain than having all the money in Holiday. All that being said, these deals allow the Grizzlies to possible move closer to the top 6, and NO the same. NO also gets at minimum three draft picks in 2019 to either deal or use, which considering what you’re taking… well your own pick will be very good. This isn’t the traditional gamble on the young draft pick in the same way. Maybe that’s a detriment but I truly feel the deal(s) I’ve laid out can benefit all teams in the long run based on their needs instead of Band-Aid decisions year to year.