This is only my opinion, but I believe that an infinite number of factors are taken in consideration by the market to value a company. Note that I have been heavily invested in this sector both in relative and in absolute terms for 4 years and followed every company.
Simplified, the market cap at all times represents what the market is willing to pay for the company. ECON-101 teaches you that over a long period of time, valuation by the market is more right than what a handful of investors believe. My thesis is that if APHA has been "undervalued" for so long, it's simply not worth more to the eyes of the market. I am done fighting the market.
As for CGC, if it has been "overvalued" for so long, there are reasons behind it. Unless you believe that everyone else is wrong. Again, this is only my opinion but I believe that CGC is more expensive according to certain metrics for the following reasons:
- Book value is high
- Cash on hand ensures survival
- Backed by a large corporation
- Plans for the future regarding the US market (APHA CEO does not believe in the US market according to an interview that I have seen months ago). The US population is 10x that of Canada.
- A move toward consumer packaged goods, finished products, and away from low-margin farming
- Intellectual property and already developed awesome drinks, vapes including proprietary hardware, etc., that can simply be scaled to the US market.
I think APHA may be winning in the short term with flower and some of their brands, but this is not something that can't be replicated by competitors.
If someone's going to downvote, please at least try to make me change my mind.