One thing I've discerned reading about this conflict is that Russia really don't want a proxy war. I'm not the type to defend Putin normally, but this is a massive headache for him, and Erdogan knows this.

I can't figure out why Pashinyan won't play realpolitik, but I suppose from the Armenian point of view, Turkey is always a threat and Neo-Ottomanism might actually happen. It's not a completely unreasonable fear tbf.

Like any other leader in the region, including Aliyev of course, Pashinyan has a propaganda machine that ensures the population are behind him. Then he pulls the surprised pikachu face when most of the Western countries don't back him, and in cases like this attack on Ganja, actually sympathise with Azerbaijan, even if they mildly sympathise with Armenia over all.

I think wanting both sides to stick to the ceasefire is one of the few occasions where the western countries are Russia are on the same page.