[OC] A Statistical Analysis of Drafting RBs vs WRs Early
I’ve always gone in to drafts targeting RBs early. WRs we’re plentiful, RBs got stuck in time shares, RBs were injured more…. Just felt right.
I wanted to take a statistical look at this draft approach. Does it make sense to try and lock down RB1s early? This is a question we see over and over. We see Zero-RB strategies, Zero WR strategies, fuck it Mahomes round 1 strategies.
So let’s get in to it. For this study, I’ll be using my leagues ESPN .5 points per reception league settings and looking at the 2020 fantasy points data. The only oddball rule is setting every yard rushed and received to .1 points. This makes 29 yards 2.9 points vs 2 points in hi ur normal league. So you will see in the data that players have off decimal totals. This, in my eyes, is more accurate and will give us a better data set.
| RB | Points |
|---|---|
| 1- A. Kamara | 338.3 |
| 11- E. Elliot | 198.7 |
RB1 to RB11 had a difference of 139.6
| WR | Points |
|---|---|
| 1- D. Adams | 300.9 |
| 11- AJ Brown | 213.5 |
WR1 to WR11 had a difference of 87.4
RB drop-off is 37.4% larger than WR.
Now if you look at it slightly differently and account for the whole groups of 1’s and 2’s….
| RB | Points |
|---|---|
| 1- A. Kamara | 338.3 |
| 2- D. Henry | 323.6 |
| 3- D. Cook | 315.8 |
| 4- D. Montgomery | 238.8 |
| 5- J. Taylor | 235.8 |
| 6- A. Jones | 235.4 |
| 7- J. Robinson | 226.9 |
| 8- J. Jacobs | 214.8 |
| 9- K. Hunt | 200.5 |
| 10- N. Chubb | 199.7 |
| 11- E. Elliot | 198.7 |
| 12- A. Gibson | 185.2 |
| 13- M. Gordon | 184.7 |
| 14- K. Drake | 180.7 |
| 15- M. Davis | 179.5 |
| 16- R. Jones | 172.3 |
| 17- C. Carson | 169.3 |
| 18- D. Swift | 166.8 |
| 19- D. Johnson | 163.5 |
| 20- N. Hines | 162.7 |
RB1-10 to RB11-20 had a difference of 766.5
| WR | Points |
|---|---|
| 1- D. Adams | 300.9 |
| 2- T. Hill | 289.4 |
| 3- S. Diggs | 266.1 |
| 4- C. Ridley | 237.5 |
| 5- D. Hopkins | 233.3 |
| 6- DK Metcalf | 232.8 |
| 7- J. Jefferson | 231.2 |
| 8- A. Thielen | 218.0 |
| 9- T. Lockett | 216.4 |
| 10- M. Evans | 213.6 |
| 11- AJ Brown | 213.5 |
| 12- A. Robinson | 212.9 |
| 13- R. Woods | 202.1 |
| 14- K. Allen | 196.1 |
| 15- B. Cooks | 195.5 |
| 16- A. Cooper | 193.8 |
| 17- M. Jones | 190.8 |
| 18- C. Claypool | 187.9 |
| 19- DJ Moore | 186.5 |
| 20- JuJu | 185.6 |
WR1-10 to WR11-20 had a difference of 474.5
RBs had a drop off of 38.1% greater
This isn’t me saying absolutely draft RBs early. As usual, the best strategy is to let the draft come to you and adapt (don’t pass on Tyreek Hill in round 4 cause you have to draft a RB for example). But if you’re sitting there with players you have ranked similarly, go RB early.
TL;DR In both instances RBs had similarly large drop offs, seeing a ~38% drop off in to the RB2 category vs WR2.