Best case scenario for the Bulls?

Here is my thought out in-depth analysis:

The objectives should be, in order of importance:

1) Develop Markkanen, Dunn and LaVine. However, this can be done to varying degrees, and does not require that you play 8th seed playoff basketball to do it. You can lose a ton and give these guys a ton of minutes to develop. But these three guys are already known-quantities as high level prospects. You can't be sure a third overall pick or a fifth overall pick or even a first overall pick will be as good as a Markkanen or LaVine, so these three assets are really more important than your own first. You could probably argue Dunn, and to a lesser extent LaVine, but Markkanen is definitely more important than your 2018 first round pick.

2) Get as high a draft pick (and as many draft picks) as possible while accomplishing Objective #1. You can' t sabotage the developments of the three aforementioned pieces just to get the #1 overall pick. LaVine has to come back and play. Markkanen and Dunn have to develop chemistry. Etc. However, certain players are expendable and not important to developing Dunn/Markkanen/LaVine.

3) Clear as much cap space as possible to enable you to sign as many impact free agents as possible before Dunn/Markannen/LaVine need big contract extensions. Self-explanatory. I'm not having any delusions of Lebron coming here, but DeMarcus Cousins is a free agent, isn't he? So is Chicago native and 20 ppg scorer Jabari Parker.

4) Develop and keep as many future supporting pieces as possible to supplement your core (#1), while not harming objectives #2 or #3 too much. This means, for example, that Bobby Portis is a really nice backup center that you'd love to have on a contending playoff team, for when you get there. Try to keep him, but if he's hurting the tank, he's expendable. Same can be said of Niko.... but it doesn't mean he automatically needs to be traded, because again, he's a young, valuable supporting piece.

............

My analysis of how to accomplish those four goals would be to go about it in this order:

1) The first piece that needs to go is Lopez. He's not a part of the future. He's expensive. And not having him leaves a gaping hole at center that will allow us to lose some games. Trading him clears out minutes for Markkanen (objective #1) but also helps us lose games (#2) and frees up space for the offseason FA period (#3). He might hurt #1 a little because he's not around to be a veteran presence for the young guys, but he's not the same style player as Markkanen, so I'm not sure how much he can tutor him anyway. Trade him.

2) Felicio is the next piece that should go. Portis is more valuable as the long term backup big man. Portis is better and, for now, cheaper. I don't even know why Felicio was re-signed to this deal. See if you can move him along with Lopez, maybe. I'd trade away a second round pick just to get rid of this contract, frankly, to accomplish objective #3. This will also help weaken front court depth so as to be an Achilles heel for the Bulls this season, resulting in losses.

3) See if you can find takers for Holiday, Payne, or Grant. I'll take seconds or expirings. Just want to clear off their cap hits for next year and weaken our depth this year, helping with Objective #2 and #3.

4) The Mirotic and/or Portis decision. This is the tricky part. Firstly, you have the question as to whether these guys can co-exist long term. If no, one of them has to go, period. Mirotic seems like the better option to ship out, as he's more expensive (helps objective #3) and since he's so hot right now, he's hurting #2. He could also bring back a significant asset, perhaps, which I'll say adding draft picks goes towards helping Objective #2 also.

If they can co-exist, then you have to analyze them in context of #2 and #3. Frankly, I think, despite Mirotic's cap hit of $12.5m, the Bulls are in excellent position if they can move the other names I already discussed. They currently only have $46m committed next year. Subtracting Lopez (14.3), Felicio ($8.4), and even one of Grant/Holiday/Payne (I'll go with the mean... $3), gives the Bulls only $21m committed, plus cap holds. The cap is supposed to be nearly $100m, yes? The Bulls will be able to give out two max deals plus fill-in contracts if that is the case. There is no need to move out Mirotic to create cap space if Lopez/Felicio/others are moved. In fact, you probably do not find a more impactful use of Mirotic's $12.5 million other than on Mirotic himself.

So the question becomes, does Mirotic hurt the tank by keeping him around? Well..... yes and no. My hope is more no than yes. I would hope that by dealing Lopez, Felicio, and some depth, the Bulls hurt themselves enough that Mirotic can stay. Do they end up with the worst record in the league? No, they probably do not, if Mirotic is here. But do they fall outside the top 3-4 worst records? Maybe they don't. If they have the 3rd worst record instead of the worst record, is that really the end of the world? As pointed out earlier, the odds of getting the first overall pick are already only 25% if you have the worst record. If you have the third worst record, your odds are only slightly worse. I might rather have Mirotic and a 18% chance of the first overall pick rather than no Mirotic and a 25% chance at the first overall pick. Especially in a year where there is no Lebron or Durant at the top. Instead, we are in a year where Doncic at 3 might actually be better than Bagley at 1.

The only other consideration is, what can you get for Mirotic? If some team was offering a top 8 pick for him, well, then that throws all the other analysis out the window. You want that pick, plus the added benefits of helping the tank and clearing up cap space. But if you are only getting a pick in the 20's, that's a crapshoot even to be an NBA quality backup. I'd rather keep Mirotic.

Now, if the Bulls start winning too much.... if they go on long win streaks, and look like they are threatening to get outside the top 5 picks.... then you have to consider moving Mirotic just to facilitate the tank. Once you get outside those top 5 picks, the draft becomes too much of a crapshoot, despite us finding Markkanen at 7 last year. Can't guarantee that, and it's just unarguable that the best odds are in the top 3 or top 5.

Hopefully this win streak ends ASAP, they find buyers for Lopez and Felicio, and Portis and Mirotic go back to getting along and playing losing basketball. That's the best case scenario.

/r/chicagobulls Thread