Blast from the past | Tesla Model S Prototype Unveiling event from April 2009

Like what?

I think the only difference between a world with and without the Model S, or Tesla at all, is that a few luxury brands wouldn't have made a few electric sports car concepts, and maybe the Chevy Bolt would've had a smaller battery in its first model year.

Lithium ion BEV vehicles were already here before Tesla; Renault-Nissan brought them to market in the 1990s, pretty much as soon as commercial-scale lithium ion battery production began. The battery megafactories started popping up before the Gigafactory was even a thought. The Nissan Leaf came before the Model S and sold hundreds of thousands of units, with batteries from a billion dollar megafactory that broke ground before the Roadster was built. China did its thing with dozens of BEV models with Tesla nowhere in sight.

It was CARB that brought all the first generation EVs to market at the same time. They started regulating emissions in 2004. By the mid-2000s every car maker was aware that California was going to start mandating a percentage of sales of zero-emission vehicles. There's only two real ways to make those: fuel cells or batteries. Those car makers, along with even the Bush administration's support, lobbied to delay that a while, but we did end up with that mandate coming into force in 2012.

That's why you saw the Ford Focus Electric, Chevy Spark EV, Fiat 500e, Honda Fit EV, Toyota RAV4 EV, and the Nissan Leaf all come out between 2011 and 2013: compliance with the mandate so they could continue selling cars in California.

And from 2012 to 2020, we waited for the price of lithium ion batteries to fall. The price per kWh has been too high for EVs to be anything other than either compliance cars, or luxury cars like Tesla's. There's still nothing in the mass market price range with a 50+ kWh battery today, which is why the entire US EV market is under 200K units a year.

The price per kWh of lithium ion batteries has, however, dropped over 80% in the past 8 years (which isn't due to Tesla either). By 2020 it'll reach the sweet spot where you can put 50-60 kWh in a car and hit the $17-23K mark after incentives, which is where something like 90% of consumer car sales happen. Hitting the price point, on top of ZEV and global emission mandates that have not stopped increasing since 2012, is why all the manufacturers have huge numbers of EVs planned for a few years from now. In other words, they're not at all a response to anything Tesla's done; the timeline before, during and after the Model S for the rest of the BEV landscape was virtually unchanged by Tesla's existing.

/r/teslamotors Thread Parent Link - youtube.com