Except Shapeshift makes it clear they log everything and will cooperate with all LE requests.

If you're going to go Bitcoin -> Monero -> Bitcoin you need to split this up between different wallets over Tor/VPN. Converting 1 BTC to Monero, mix Monero by sending to different addresses, and then convert back to BTC you have done nothing to unlink the connection if the total wallet amounts are the same.

based on my understanding, this might be sufficient: Move 1 BTC to Monero with one exchange. Then, move the Monero around between multiple Monero addresses (say for example, 5). A few days later, exchange each Monero address 1-by-1 to different Bitcoin wallets from different exchanges all over Tor and rotate IPs between each broadcast.

Or, just buy a lot of Bitcoins and move them all to Monero at once. Mix up your Monero between different Monero wallets. Then over a long period of time, exchange only what you need back to Bitcoin to buy what you're trying to buy. If you exchange everything back to BTC all at once, then what the OP has shown is that you will get flagged regardless.

I know that sounds like a lot of work, but the weakness is always the endpoints.