Now keep in mind that he's put up 5 seasons below 4.6 and only 2 above it. If he puts up 8 straight years of 4.5+ WAR, then he's worth $300 million. That's a big if.

The whole point is that it's a fine deal right now. But 12 more years is a long ass time. There is no way to know how good a player will be in 1 year or 5 years. A 13 year deal is always going to be looked at with skepticism. If you can't understand why a lot of people don't like the deal, then I'm sorry you can't see it. It's just as likely that they are paying $25 million a year for a someone who will be at replacement level as they will be getting 4 WAR seasons at a discount. He's going to be on their payroll through this championship push, into their inevitable rebuild, and then for their next push. They've committed $25 million to a player for the 2032 season...that's almost certainly going to be a bad paycheck. And the payoff this season was a $10 million+ discount on a player that ultimately didn't make the playoffs.

Yeah, he's super worth it in jersey sales and season tickets alone for now even if he had missed a month and only hit 20 HRs with a 100 WRC+, but the deal as a whole is very iffy looking when you consider that nobody expects Bryce Harper to be an All-Star through the entire 20's. And I bet that the Phillies knew that if they didn't go long like that they wouldn't get him, so they didn't have a choice. But, it's still a very iffy contract. Not bad, just potentially bad. Potentially very bad.