Branko Milanovic: Avner Offer argues that Britain and Germany's decision to specialize in the production of manufactured goods led to the need to have war machines and ultimately to the war itself - A review of “The First World War: An Agrarian Interpretation” (1991). (January 2022)

I'm very skeptical: small countries like Belgium and Switzerland industrialised in the 19th century without investing in their military to the extent of starting off a war.

That's not what the argument states. The point that's being made is that the shape of 20th century warfare was driven by modes of industrialization. That didn't cause the wars -- but it did cause the ways in which the wars were fought.

Its notable, for example, that World War One sees the most extensive use of poison gas, ever. Chemical warfare had been a vague idea in the 19th century (Admiral Lord Cochrane), but it's the development of organic chemistry as an industry that makes possible industrial scale chemical warfare.

Both Belgium and Switzerland were and and still are big arms suppliers by the way -- neutrals in WW I, but hardly pacificists. Liege in particular has long been a major center of weapons manufacture (viz FN Herstal) and trade.

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