#Breaking Tal Rifaat operation has begun.

I don't think Turkey has offered Russia anything significant to turn a blind eye to its operation in Afrin.

It is much more likely that Russia has sensed the fragile and tensed relationship between Turkey and the United States, due to the latter's support for the YPG, which the Turks see as a existential threat to their natural security and sovereignty. For Russia, the possibility that relations between Turkey and the US would grow even worse, perhaps up to the point that it would drive a permanent wedge between Turkey and NATO, is a strategic price which the Russians can't overlook. Because would there ever be a divorce between Turkey and the transatlantic organization, its effects would amount to a geopolitical earthquake, on the same scale (or even higher) as Iran's abrupt end of relationship with the West after the '79 revolution.

So all Russia needs to do is sit back and watch how Turkey's pivot towards eastern Euphrates would position the country against the Americans that are providing a security umbrella to an organization which the Turks have branded as a terroristic one. Erdogan has declared that Manbij, as well other major cities on the eastern part of the river, should be cleansed from the YPG, but for this Erdogan obviously needs the support of the US. Now if the Americans would outright refuse to cooperate with Turkey against the YPG, it would move the Turks into the Russian camp. If the United States on the other hand would favour its decades-old alliance (or whatever is left of it) with Turkey at the expense of the Kurds, the latter would be pressed to seek support from both the Syrian government and Russia, which would mean that the Americans would lose an important and loyal proxy in the region.

In the end, the Americans would have to pick a side, as it is difficult to see how it could prevent a deterioration of relationship with Turkey, while at the same time maintain its alliance with the YPG. For Russia, either outcome would provide greater strategic rewards than to see Turkey capturing land that has no real value for Russia and its position in the region.

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