I understand - that there are a million different possibilities. It is possible that tomorrow I will go buy a lottery ticket and get rich, or that I get hit by a bus on the way to it, and die. But those odds are very small, and most likely one, is that tomorrow I wake up, go to work, and go home.

OP stated that BM is an addict - and I have an addict in my life. And I know that sometimes, when we talk on the phone, and things aren't right, that it could be a bad day at work, or the flu, or a stomach bug, or allergies, or so many other possibilities. But I also know that if it walks like a duck, and looks like a duck, and sounds like a duck, than more often than not it is a duck. Just like an addict is gonna addict. And someone who tends to disappoint will continues to do just that. Asking people to keep their word is not asking for too much. It's like the minimum requirement in a friendship, dependability. If you don't have that, might as well ask a stranger on the street.

You seem to jump very quickly on so many possibilities as to why BM acted the way she acted. But you didn't acknowledge, that while those possibilities exists, the most likely one, is the most obvious one. That is who she is, and acting the way she did isn't cool. Bailing out of a friend like that shouldn't happen. Yes, it is possible that there are so many other issues, but those percentages are so small.

We can't question OP more ... so we won't know ... but I just don't get why the whole thing is a circle jerk in coming up with possibilities, even if all of them put together add up to 10% probability.

But hey - I'm the one who doesn't get it ... possibilities, but you don't get that not all of them are equally likely. If they were, we wouldn't be here.