I used an SD of 100bb/100 (the default).
First off, you're NOT wrong is what you're saying. But it's (a very little bit) complicated...
Did you scroll down and read what I linked you? It doesn't seem like it because you would have noticed something was off. I specifically left it out to see if you would look into what I was saying:
The following tables are derived by a simulation over 100 million hands.
Now I want you to plug 100,000,000 hands into the calculator with WR = 4bb/100 and SD = 100bb/100. Run the calculation. Scroll down and you will read:
Probability of loss after 10000000 hands (»?«) 0.0000%
The chances of you losing money in this sample is 0. Notice the wording used. It's very important.
But scroll down to read the table below I linked you, it will say something close to
Downswing extents: 5000+ BB 5.98%
(Your number may vary as it depends on the results of the simulation.)
How it this possible? Because we're not talking about the same thing! You're talking about losing 50bi AFTER PLAYING x hands, while I'm talking about losing 50bi WITHIN A SAMPLE of x hands. Notice the wording used. It's very important.
So we're not talking about the same things.
This is similar to flipping a coin 1M times. Over the long run you expect the nb_tails/nb_heads to converge to 0. I ran a python simulation and found 15 consecutive tails... 13 times! The chances of flipping 15+ consecutive tails is less than (1/2)15 but in a sample of 1M? It's almost near 100%.
| # consecutive tails | # occurrences |
|---|---|
| 1 | 250459 |
| 2 | 125034 |
| 3 | 62521 |
| 4 | 31123 |
| 5 | 15741 |
| 6 | 7768 |
| 7 | 3883 |
| 8 | 2010 |
| 9 | 891 |
| 10 | 503 |
| 11 | 244 |
| 12 | 114 |
| 13 | 57 |
| 14 | 39 |
| 15 | 13 |
| 16 | 11 |
| 17 | 5 |
| 18 | 0 |
| 19 | 0 |
Its confusing cause the site doesn't specify whether they mean big blind or big bet.
Towards the bottom:
It shows how often the simulated player was stuck in a downswing of at least X big blinds. For example (1000+ BB – 31.77%) means the player was in the middle of a downswing of at least 1,000 big blinds 31.77 percent of the time.
So obv BB = big blind and not "big bet". FYI nobody uses the term "big bet" anymore, at least not since 2008ish. Maybe live players use it I don't know. Even PT4 has BB everywhere but it's big blind.