Thanks for the cogent statement. A few responses:
read the "null deal" agreed I did, and it makes sense and aligns for the most part with CCP's goals here. However, it assumes (like many of the people objecting to the new system) that everything else in null will stay as-is, especially regarding resources and population density.
Given that CCP's goal is to move many more people into null, they won't be sitting idly by while whole swathes of desert are created. For Bob's sake, their income and jobs in the real world depend on this new system changing the game for the better! Keep in mind that they see more than anyone in null sec, even the experienced Sov leaders. They know exactly how many people are where, what they're doing, and how they're doing it. They are literally God in New Eden. If they see things going wrong and people not using null like they wanted, then they'll act.
(cue people stating that CCP has done dumb things in the past)
This is where I point out that CCP is not a single person. I judge them on their actions of the past year, not on what came before that. They've put themselves on a schedule of changes and expansions to the game that few companies would try, and pulled it off so far through 2014 and early 2015. The people there now are not the same as the ones who made many mistakes of the past, despite which I think they have learned from those mistakes... after all, it's not like their player base lets them forget.
The problem here is that with the current implementation (of both sov mechanics and sov income), there is no equilibrium.
I actually agree with this... so does CCP. It's one of the reasons they're changing the system.
Your assumption works if a very large amount of players can live and make money starting in just one
This is a bit of an oversimplification. There may well be some systems where this will work, but I'd suspect they are few and rare (or are going to be). Rather, players will have to hold small clusters of valuable systems that DO work this way.
Much of null seems to be short on resources, I agree.... but I bet CCP does, too.
nullsec systems do not support a large amount of people
Again, possibly true, but CCP may know better or may actually be planning to watch for issues. Remember that they know down to the player level what was mined/produced/manufactured, where it happened, when, and using what tools.
2-3 guys have to be on standby for 4 hours each day in combat ships doing basically nothing.
Possibly, but not necessarily. I'd suspect people will come up with ways to deal with the problem, similar to the way empires watch for nullsec incursions of explorers or spies currently. Remember also that most systems will have mining and industrial activity going on in them, which means people will be there and noticing anyone trying to poke the bear. I think it's going to be much easier to deal with trolls than people think, unless there's actually no one in the system they're attacking.
money is still the oil that greases everything.
Quite true, and in fact you prove my point for me. If people can't make money in nullsec, then CCP's change will have failed and they will lose real ISK because of it. If low and high sec become less fun because people leave nullsec in droves or if people just quit the game, then Eve gets a bad rep and loses players and income going forward.
Which is more likely: That the new Sov system will cause the changes people worry about and there will be an exodus from null, causing issues for everyone everywhere in the game, messing up the economy more, making the game less fun and losing CCP lots of real money, causing them to lose their jobs eventually as players stop playing and no one has faith that CCP will fix things.
or
CCP, a company which has stayed in business with one game as their product for over 10 years despite some incredibly dumb missteps has created a change to their product that will enhance it greatly, because it's important to them that the game world grow and attract new players. Using their unequaled knowledge of how things work in null, they will tune the new system. They will watch over New Eden, correcting problems as they happen because despite all the complaints people have about them, they're certainly not stupid, and they don't want to kill the game that keeps them employed.
?
Change is painful, but I really think a lot of the people complaining are going to wish in a year or so that their words weren't archived for everyone to see, because they'll be cringing at them.