Challenge: Make a European power retain a major colony till 2016

for the Europeans to be strong enough to hold the colony down by force and for the idea of colinisation to not be so discredited that the people at home wouldn't stand for that.

Portugal fits into this category. At the time of the Carnation Revolution it had essentially beaten down all resistance in Angola and Mozambique.

If they can hang on until Angola can develop its oil and Mozambique can develop its coal (and later gas), Portugal might be able to survive as a sort of pariah state, especially if they form ties with an energy-hungry China to keep them economically afloat.

Note that China IRL is heavily invested into both Angola and Mozambique's resources, not to mention Zambia. I suspect that if Portugal manages to get away with keeping its colonies, China would be more overtly neocolonial in its Zambia policy.

The most interesting part of the scenario is that due to the nature of Angola's oil being concentrated offshore in Cabinda, it's not going to be particularly labor-intensive, meaning that Portugal can rule with a relatively light touch after beating down the communist insurgency and come out looking good in the end, especially in the early 90's when the US's Operation Condor inevitably gets revealed as the "alternative" attempt to contain communism.

/r/HistoryWhatIf Thread Parent