“Chewing gum stuck on the sole of China’s shoes.” That’s how Hu Xijin, the editor of the Chinese Communist Party–run Global Times, described Australia last year. The disparaging description is typical of the disdain that China’s diplomats and propagandists have often shown toward governments that challenge Beijing—like Australia’s.
China is now the great power of Asia—or so Beijing believes—but those pesky Australians, mouthing off about human rights and coronavirus investigations, refuse to bend the knee. Beijing has turned to economic pressure to compel Australia to fall in line. “Sometimes you have to find a stone to rub it off,” Hu wrote, of the gum and of Australia. But the Australians have proved impossible to shake, and have instead caused some embarrassment for their image-obsessed tormentor.
The ongoing dispute between Australia and China may seem merely a bilateral affair, fought out in a remote corner of the planet. But it matters around the world.
Australia is a crucial American ally in Asia, so China’s actions toward the country inevitably affect both Washington’s policy and its standing in the region. Australia is representative of many countries: a midsize nation whose economic relationship with Beijing is vital for growth and jobs but, simultaneously, whose politicians and citizens are becoming more concerned about China’s repressive tactics at home and aggression abroad.
The deteriorating relationship between the two countries thus reveals a lot about how China’s leaders can and can’t employ their growing diplomatic and economic power, as well as the options, consequences, and costs for countries, such as Australia, that seek to stand up to Beijing.
Australia “really is a bit of a canary in the coal mine,” Jeffrey Wilson, the research director at the Perth USAsia Centre, a foreign-policy think tank, told me. “You should care about what is happening here, because it’s got lessons for everyone.”
The most important lesson is also the most unexpected. On paper, the outcome of a China-Australia showdown looks like a foregone conclusion. China, a rising power with 1.4 billion people and a $14.7 trillion economy, should trample a country of 26 million with an economy less than one-tenth the size. But in a world wrapped in interdependent supply chains and complex political connections, smaller countries can wield a surprising armory of weapons. The U.S.-led global order, still held together by common interests, long-standing relationships, cold strategic calculation, and deeply felt ideals, isn’t ready to crumble before the march of Chinese authoritarianism either. The story instead offers a more intriguing twist: a China that badly wants to change the world but can’t even change an uppity neighbor.
Chinese leaders “are trying to make an example of us,” Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian prime minister, told me. “It is completely counterproductive … It is not creating greater compliance or affection.” Quite the opposite, he said: “It is confirming all the criticisms that people make about China.”
That should lift spirits in Washington. Australia is a key pillar of the network of alliances that upholds American dominance in Asia and the Pacific. If anything, Washington’s ties to Canberra are becoming even more important. Australia and the U.S. are members of the “Quad,” a loose grouping with Japan and India that largely seeks to contain China. What happens to Australia, therefore, has tremendous consequences for U.S. power in the Pacific.
“China can’t bash up on the U.S., but it can bash up on its allies,” Richard McGregor, a former Beijing bureau chief at the Financial Times who’s now a senior fellow at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute, told me. “If China can break Australia, then that’s a step to breaking U.S. power in Asia, and U.S. credibility globally.”
Australia’s importance hasn’t gone unnoticed in the White House. President Joe Biden’s top diplomats have been loud and clear in their support for Australia. His Asia-policy czar, Kurt Campbell, said in March that the administration told Chinese authorities, “The U.S. is not prepared to improve relations in a bilateral and separate context at the same time that a close and dear ally is being subjected to a form of economic coercion.” The U.S., he added, is “not going to leave Australia alone on the field.”