Group C: The Promised Land
9. Mike Budenholzer (Hawks, 53-14) 8. Steve Kerr (Warriors, 53-13)
The two hottest coaches in the NBA right now, and not coincidentally, bearers of the two best records. The only thing stopping me from ranking these two higher is the lack of experience.
Not in any Hawks fan's wildest dreams was this imagined. We're talking a team where even homers were predicting a 48 win season. In case you haven't noticed, these guys are already at 53 and with no signs of slowing down soon. Budenholzer's "Spurs east" project has been a resounding success, and despite the clear markings of Popovich project, there's no doubting Budenholzer's success in hitting the ground running with a new scheme and so effectively taking advantage of all of the piece's he has been given. Nowhere has this been more evident than his utilization of Kyle Korver's shooting threat--watch a 5 minute clip of a Hawks game, and you'll likely catch multiple plays designed to look like Korver is about to get the ball, drawing defenders and opening lanes. His ability to work Dennis Schroder into a 9/4/2 guy (playing 19 minutes) off the bench is another success.
Kerr follows much of the same mark-up. He inherited a stacked team with great chemistry, but the signs of a great coach are there. The Warriors have consistently ranked as one of the best defensive teams--this was true under Jackson and is true under Kerr, albeit a marginal improvement. However, what can't be underestimated is how much Kerr is improved the Warrior's offense. Imagine this: a team with Curry and Thompson was scraping only 12th in offensive efficiency while 3rd in defensive efficiency. They now are neck and neck for 1st in offensive efficiency while 1st in defensive efficiency. The marks of Kerr's emphasis on sharing the ball and open passes are clear, too: Golden state managed only 7th in assists last year. It now leads the league in them.
Group B: Overrated
7. Thibodeau (Bulls, 40-28)
See my flair? That's the only reason Thibodeau is this high. Otherwise I'd probably be burned at the stake by other Bulls fans. Thibodeau's defensive schema were brilliant when they were first introduced with the Celtics, and lent themselves to a strong defense with the Bulls as well. His team clearly takes after his attitude: 100% effort, get after it, don't give up. His set plays are often brilliant, and when he chooses to innovate (multi-guard lineups, Butler-Rose PnRs, small ball with Mirotic at the 4), he has found immense success. And though Thibodeau gets flak for playing players too long or too little, it can be shown that he plays them only as much as necessary, and develops his rookies at an excellent pace. Butler has been the best proof of both, being played so heavily because he has no serviceable 2-guard behind him, and in that his development as a player now 4 years has outpaced nearly everyone in his draft class, despite being drafted with the 30th pick.
The problem, however, is two-fold. First, his willingness to adapt is minimal. This has never been clearer than this year, in his unwillingness to pull Hinrich, inability to coax workable defense out of Gasol, and last year's debacle against the Wizard's, where Thibodeau's defensive schemes were turned against him as the Wizard's bigs would pick and pop at will from the elbows with nominal defensive pressure. The second problem is the effort: while Thibodeau's ability to coax heavy effort during the regular season is admirable, the point becomes moot during the playoffs, when every team turns on whatever extra gear they have. For this reason, I believe that Thibodeau's teams manage to look much better in the regular season than would otherwise be apparent.
Group A: Time-Tested
These are the coaches that need little to no explanation. I'll talk about them anyway.
6. George Karl (Kings, 4-10)
George Karl has little to do with the Kings. He belongs in Denver, where he posted franchise bests with Carmelo Anthony, Andre Iguadola, and not much else. That said, I doubt he'll be on the Kings much longer, so I'll leave this be.
5. Stan Van Gundy (Pistons, 24-43)^
He built a fucking wall. It was glorious. He was also blessed with Dwight Howard with the Magic... and no one else, miraculously dragging them to the NBA finals and multiple playoff berths despite little to actually work with. Who was the second banana on those teams? Keith Bogans?
4. Erik Spoelstra (Heat, 30-36)
With the thinnest resume of anyone in this group, this might be a controversial pick. That said, no one can deny that Spoelstra managed to pull together Lebron and company in spectacular fashion, and while LBJ takes much of the credit, a four year stretch of Finals' appearances is nothing to sneeze it. That is especially true considering the reality that Lebron and Bosh, along with an often beleaguered Wade, often carried an anemic bench and supporting cast. All that said, Spoelstra took Lebron from just an incredible player to the centerpiece of an at the time unique offensive system, popularizing the pace-and-space, small-ball era. His defensive tactics and the passes that dazzled opponents during the Lebron era haven't left either, making clear that Spoelstra's system can outlast the stars he coaches.
3. Doc Rivers (42-25)
Doc won a Coach of the Year award, and it wasn't with the Celtics: it was with the Magic as a rookie coach. His resume has been impeccable wherever he's gone, whether it was turning around a Magic team slated for bottom of the league to an even 41-41 record, a championship with the Celtics, or turning the Clippers into a precise passing machine despite sometimes seemingly unworkable parts. Doc has hurt himself at times with the Clippers by struggling as a GM, but Coach Doc has managed to make up for GM Doc's shortcomings by making the most of the less, most notably managing a 6-4 record with Blake Freaking Griffin sidelined.
2. Rick Carlisle
If you've watched the Mavs at all this season, you've seen Rick Carlisle at work. A top 5 offensive team with a workable defense despite not a single good defender outside of Tyson Chandler (and now, technically, Rondo), Carlisle's famous usage of the motion offense is, at it's best, art in motion. He's posted a total of one losing season in 13 and dragging the Mavericks to their improbably championship over the Heat in 2011, as well as 6 50+ win seasons (on pace for 7 this year). Remember the Spurs that steamrolled through everyone last season? Carlisle took them to 7 games despite an anemic, 8th seeded Mavs team. And the Dallas team that managed to flummox the Heat in 2011 involved a mid-game switch to a zone defense. Oh, and this big cajones play? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxMF9Wtq78U <<Imagine the stones you need to CALL that play for not Nowitzki or Ellis. Damn.
1. Greg Popovich
Who else was going to top this list but the man who managed to win 5 championships over the span of 2000 years? The only real constant has been Tim Duncan. The roster has changed, the tactics have changed, but Greg Popovich has always been on the cutting edge. Once a mighty old-basketball honk who managed David Robinson and Tim Duncan at the same time as the Twin Towers in the paint, he's transformed his coaching to a 3-pointing bombing machine, pioneering and popularizing the importance of the 3-pointer, capstoned symbolically with his most recent Chip being a dismantling of the Heat under a barrage of unmissing 3s. Popovich has consistently defined the aspect of every strong coach: adaptability, developing players, out-of-the-box thinking, and team chemistry, just to name a few. He's coached since the dawn of time (since 1996) and has still managed to hold a nearly 70% win rate while amassing 3 CotY awards.
All bow before Pop.