Break even oil prices aren't enough to support new CAPEX investment.

Firstly, in a hostile ESG activist investing environment, energy companies have to pay solid dividends to reward shareholders who take long positions in their stocks. That's not going to change until the hostile investing activism subsides.

Secondly, we are currently in an uncertain and unstable business environment, with the threats of taxes and price caps Biden keeps issuing to domestic oil producers, the newly emerging geopolitical adversarial stands toward OPEC+ for attempting to stabilize prices, and the interference with market dynamics caused by the US appearing to attempt to put a relatively low apparent price cap of around $75/bbl on the price of oil by using SPR dumping to temporarily increase oil supply. (Recall that oil was falling below $80/bbl toward $78/bbl and at that level Biden then decided to release from the SPR for another month after the original October end date, which is the point at which OPEC+ stepped in with a production cut).

All of the above inconsistency, instability and shifting goalposts create uncertainty in the business environment, which prevents people being willing to invest in large, costly CAPEX planning. So oil, in this business environment, so that means there's a higher risk premium. Probably oil would have to stay upwards of $90/bbl or higher to invite significant investment in new production in this unstable business environment.

Your $50/bbl is way below prepandemic oil prices, not to mention doesn't even account for inflation in the past year.