Common spot that I think I must be getting wrong most of the time.

Says everyone. “Those are the calls you want people to be making”. “You’re printing money there”. Yes, theoretically, on paper, because on paper they correctly fold when they’re supposed to. In reality, not a sim, real donkeys just call call call. Then when they get there, you’re pot committed because you bloated the pot on the flop, “for value” at 1.5x. if you just check-fold anytime the flush gets there that’s exploitable too. The advice people give is reflexive, it’s parroted everyday, and it not practical for real world play. All the ideal sizings and strat goes out the window when other “bad” players play an abnormal strategy.

Just because their moves are horribly -EV for them, does not guarantee your own theoretical ideal lines and sizing will actually be +EV for you, especially against more than one opponent making loose PF calls. It’s ideal on paper, but people don’t play the way solvers do. Poker is more about having the cards just go your way than they like to admit.

If I 4 or 5 bet Jam AA preflop, and someone calls with 75 suited and flops a straight or two pair, what other theoretically better line is there? I got it in as a massive favorite, I sized up for value as well as for slimming the field, now I’m out a buy in because someone else made what’s considered a shitty call on paper. If there are several people doing this in a session, it makes it extremely hard to stay ahead when you are ahead.

Anyone who plays semi seriously or seriously knows for a fact that they lose way more to shitty play and lucky suckouts by other players than they lose to clever play and getting trapped by better players.

/r/poker Thread Parent