Isn’t R0 an average? So the rate of spread isn’t exponential? Either way. It’s bad. I didn’t March out that long. And isn’t that number derived from those “super spreaders”? So in theory, if we eliminate large groups (which I agree is viable but only for a short time) that R0 will go down to closer to that of the flu? Maybe still higher, but maybe only fraction? 1 person at a party infects 100 people. That same guy might only affect 2 in another environment. Holy shit a R0 of 51!!!!!!!

It’s also unlikely that same person would infect 100 at a party with the flu. Maybe he infects 10. But he also infects 2 in another like Covid. Technically is that R0 6? So it appears the first situation always infects 51 people and the second on 6? Even if the R0 is 2.5x higher, if the group that is infected is less likely to need care, doesn’t that reduce the death rate? Instead of say 1%, it’s reduced to .6%. Compared to the example of the flu of .5%?

But at the current spread, a vaccine needs to be 70% effective to reach that controlled level An that’s if 75% of the population gets the vaccine. They don’t think the first vaccine will be that effective. At the estimated effectiveness, 80-90% of the population has to receive it. Unless it’s mandated, at least 75% of our population won’t voluntarily receive it.

But I guess, in some way, that sort of illustrates my point. Simple human nature (at least in America) can’t be confined and restricted to what it will take to eliminate it. we may have to adjust what “normal” is for Covid.