These are all good points, I just want to add a few things;

• Uptake percentage in a given population is likely to change over time, as the trust increases and/or uptake is deemed necessary.
• Are 32% really at risk? You are discussing numbers from vaccination only, what about wild immunity? Remember that a large portion of the low risk groups you are saying will likely be taking the vaccine less, don't take it because they don't feel at risk; oftentimes you'll find this portion of people already had some version of covid which was mild enough to improve confidence in one's ability to be exposed. I don't know the exact numbers in terms of protection from wild immunity, but I'm sure you do.
• Because of vaccination strategy, it seems difficult to compare 32% now with the 10% in the first wave. The demographics of these 32% might lead to much less impact on the NHS.

I appreciate your down-to-earth and evidence based approach, but not all modelling consistently proved true and it's easy to overlook the myriad of factors that come together to shape the pandemic.