I think this is way harder than they anticipated. Like, way, way, way harder. Is the hardware sufficient to the job? My car does not have the higher color pillar cameras, the in-car camera but does have the 3.0 hardware (old hardware slowed to a crawl). Is that enough? What happens if they have to do advanced map fusion - is there enough memory? What happens if the number of objects they can recognize simultaneously is much higher than they anticipated - do they have the compute? Are the cameras even in the right spot? Object recognition needs a minimum number of pixels (squared) to identify an object - do they have enough camera resolution? Our foveated eyes are brilliant right where we are looking - are the cameras enough?

In one of the updates - Musk indicated that they wanted the controls (not just object recognition) to be modeled with AI. This puts a lot more stress on everything and has to be trained.

They also said they want to model / forecast behaviors of other objects. Uncharted territory.

And then there’s just the logic of driving. Has that ever been modeled well enough?

The take rate for new customers on FSD is apparently around 10%. Pricing actions will continue to reduce that take rate - especially as the misses keep happening.

I bought FSD in my 2016 AND 2017 cars and have had the promises to me miss the mark. I got a few goodies - but nothing like the Robo Taxis I was promised.