In my opinion, Lukashenko's victory didn't come as a surprise to many, he has been in power for the last 26 years. Even though many believe Republic of Belrus (RoB) is the last dictatorship in Europe, but no one talks about Milo Đukanović of Montenegro. Anyways, RoB has always tried maintain it's balancing act between Russian Federation (RF) and West and I believe it's not possible in the long term. When it comes to elections, Lukashenko has blamed both USA and RF for destabilizing RoB probably to gain internal support. Recently, When Wagner Group operatives were held in RoB, Lukashenko blamed RF. Later, he went on to blame (Not directly) USA, because one of the operative held US passport.
Despite the official endorsement from Putin, uncertainty remains as to the future of Russian and Belarusian bilateral relations. Several prominent Russians, including those inside Putin's inner circle, have signaled that the Lukashenko's backing from Moscow is not guaranteed.
When coming to energy disputes, RoB and RF always had them. The main problem is RF and it's unwillingness to keep subsidizing Belarusian Soviet style economy. Belarus economy heavily depends on RF loans and cheap energy. In 2019, almost 40% of RoB's trade has been with RF. RF's oil which is processed in Mazyr and Navapolatsk, 50% of that is exported to EU. On February this energy disputes reached new heights when RoB for the first time started to import oil from KSA, Norway, US. I believe it was a threat to RF, that RoB has alternatives when it comes to energy. Eventually RoB signed an agreement on oil supplies, RF is also building a Nuclear power plant and helping BoR with technology and loans with all this RoB will stay in RF's geopolitical orbit.
Many analysts believe RF troops are ready to annexe RoB, While i think RF has no economic incentives in taking over Minsk. RoB does not have any natural resources, coal resources unlike in Donbass where RF de-facto controls the coal mines now. In Crimea there are gas reserves which can be exploited. What RF would like from RoB is liberalisation of it's economy then RF oligarchy can cherry pick on profitable Belarusian enterprisese.
With allFight till the end Lukashenko is supported by the majority of the population in rural area and people working in state owned enterprises.
Poland is becoming a regional power Poland is expected to play an important role in Belarus.