Omicron saturation current trajectory
Currently using : - Over 80% projected for infection as saturation - 80% of cases confirmed ie 20% not detected - Based on number of days average for last 3 doubles
NSW - 11 days for 2482 (20/12/21) x2x2x2 -> 21151 (31/12/21) - https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/nsw - 25 days at that rate will be over 5.4 million (21151 x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 average 3.6 days to double) - NSW pop 8.166mil x 80% saturation x 80% detected is 5.22mil
QLD - 8 days for 364 (23/12/21) x2x2x2 -> 21151 (31/12/21) - https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/qld - 24 days at that rate will be over there 3.2 million (3111 x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 average 2.6 days to double) - QLD 5.166 pop x 80% saturation x 80% detected is 3.3 mil
Sure this could be supercharged with NYE weekend, it could be mitigated by restrictions or changes in behaviour but as a raw exponential trajectory we are approx 3.5 weeks from basically an entire population to get covid…
Of course saturation points of 80%, detection rates may drop off as capacity limits are broken (already seems to be), we might be at only 50% detection rates already and perhaps at 300k-1m daily cases or at a certain number of serious hospitalisations, restrictions might return.
Check my maths… this is a first draft