[Daily Discussion] - Monday, December 13, 2021

Bitcoin has only ever closed a monthly below the 20EMA on 3 occasions in its history. On each occasion...

Three data points on a 50/50 binary outcome is statistically meaningless. The price either moves up or down. It doesn't matter what arbitrary metric you use. The distribution of up or down price changes after any specified set of three measures in a "pattern" is all the same. Approximately 50/50. Now, you can go data mine for cases where that isn't true, like you did here, but you're doing something called data overfitting. It's basically when you search through the universe of parameters looking for ones that are outliers. It has absolutely zero predictive power.

I'm so tired of seeing these basic misunderstandings of probability and statistics here.

/r/BitcoinMarkets Thread Parent