Daily Discussion, [December 28, 2017]

This is NOT my DD. But here it is : MPX Bioceuticals (MPX in Canada , MPXEF in the US) Much like many of you did, I spent some of the time over the holidays researching new MJ companies to buy (well, new to ME anyway), and I really like this one so I wanted to share. I work normally during the days so I can't usually share my stock analysis during the SAME trading session that I bought the stock in but I am on vacation this week so I will try to do just that. As always, please let me know you think of my analysis, and let me know where you agree or disagree, where you feel I have missed something, etc. As I have mentioned before, it is VERY hard to objectively value these MJ companies, so any feedback I can get is appreciated. As you have seen in my earliest posts, comparative analysis is the best way I have found so far to do it, as these MJ stocks typically trade as little sub-groups (large LP’s, smaller LP’s, license applicants, etc.), inside the overall MJ stock group. The company is MPX Bioceuticals. Some details of what I could find out about MPX from their recent news releases: - They run MJ dispensaries in Arizona (2, I think, with another on the way) - They have operations in Massachusetts, including MJ production - They just bought a licensed grower in Nevada – GreenMart – and the license has been approved for transfer to MPX - They have a joint venture with Panaxia, to run product operations within MPX’s facilities - They are building a dispensary in Baltimore, with an option to buy that company outright - As if all that wasn’t enough, they also have a MJ growing license application submitted to Health Canada All of that seemed VERY impressive to me, but here is the best part. They ALREADY HAVE REVENUE. Not just a little bit either, but $CDN 4.4 million in their last reported quarter (they sold 271,405 grams of MJ), ending Sept 30, 2017. AND that revenue is consistent for them, as they ALSO had $CDN 4.5 million in revenue (from selling 267,927 grams) for the PREVIOUS quarter, ending June 30, 2017. To put that level of revenue in perspective, Aphria’s (APH) last reported quarterly revenue was $6.17 million, so MPX’s current quarterly revenue is about 71% of that. Aphria’s market cap, however, is $2.3 Billion, while MPX’s market cap is only $127 Million (or only about 5.5% the size of Aphria’s). Put another way, Aphria’s market cap to revenue ratio is currently at 372.8 while MPX’s is only 28.9 (and before you say that “MPX is no Aphria”, the average ratio for the entire LP group is between 200 and 250, and MPX is FAR below that level too). Now THAT is a difference in relative valuation! AND I don’t think they even HAVE any revenues yet from Nevada, which is a burgeoning new Rec MJ state as well, so I see MPX’s revenues growing significantly from here. It ALSO does NOT include ANY revenues from Canada, I don’t believe, but they DO have a license application in to Health Canada (operation will be in Owen Sound) and it has been announced by Health Canada that these MJ license applications will be sped up to increase MJ supply before MJ Rec legalization starts next summer. To top it all off, MPX may have been a victim of tax-loss selling, as the share price WAS at higher levels (almost double where they are now) to start 2017. Most of the MPX shares that were traded up until the beginning of June 2017 are under water still, at .44. There is also a rumour (or news) about a large shareholder selling their shares and getting out (which doesn’t both me at all, by the way). Also, MPX just announced financing on Dec 22, with shares at 0.47 and warrants at 0.64 for 24 months, so that SHOULD act as the new floor / support level for the share price. Since TGIF has been in the news (and posts here) so much lately and the stock has been doing so well, I decided to compare MPX to TGIF, as they seem to have similar businesses (selling MJ in the US). I have NOTHING bad to say about TGIF – I haven’t fully researched it, I will admit – and I think TGIF looks undervalued, with a Market Cap to revenue ratio of 78, using their just-released quarterly revenue of $2.46 million and their current market cap of $192 million (at a share price of $1.20). By comparison, using MPX’s Market Cap of $127 million (at its $0.44 share price right now) and their last quarterly revenue of $4.4 million, MPX’s Market Cap to revenue ratio is only 28.9. So, MPX needs to increase in share price by TWO AND A HALF TIMES just to catch up to TGIF, and I think TGIF is VERY undervalued at its current ratio. Some of this may be due to the uncertainty in the US about what the Federal Govt will do about MJ, but I am not exactly sure why these ratios are SO MUCH LOWER for US MJ companies compared to those for Canadian MJ sellers (most are in the 200 – 250 range for their Market Cap to revenue ratio, as I have said). By my calculations, MPX looks so ridiculously undervalued (compared to its peers) that I MUST be overlooking something or calculating something wrong. Needless to say I took a position today in MPX, as I expect their revenues to increase significantly from here and I also expect their share price to start reflecting their value more properly (even for their CURRENT revenue level). NOTE – all calculations here were done over the holiday so they use the closing prices from Dec 22. Last thing – I believe someone on this board asked me to take a look at MPX in a post (I get a lot of these requests, and I actually DO look at some of the suggested stocks), so if any of you know who you are or if you see that post pointing out MPX to me (and the group), please tag me in a post there so I can find it and thank that person properly. Whether I make any money on MPX or not, this person DID turn me on to a stock that I ended up liking enough to buy it for myself.

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