Sounds to me like a more logical approach than most people. Of course, there's no way to assign any kind of mathematical exactness to these predictions. But your basic premise is good, and shows why you want a basket of projects, varying in risk vs reward.

A big problem with the math you're doing is using the ATH. Many (most) were manipulated pumps. The difference between a coin going 100x or 150x might have been one lonely candle, or dependent on if a whale happened to remove a sell order that morning. This only gets worse as the market caps get smaller. So those real moon shot coins often have sketchy data you're building your models on. Who even knows what the real initial price was for many of those projects. It's usually so close to zero, that 100x, 200x, 300x.. it starts to lose meaning.