Was having a conversation with a friend, thought I'd cross post it here. It's a bit ranty and negative but it's not because I doubt crypto, it's because I don't want to see people getting burned.

There's plenty of people promising the world with crypto at the moment, so it's good to present a counter point and play devil's advocate to help people make better informed decisions. I still think the market has an enormous lot of potential but it will be a wild ride in 2018.

The market cap went from $15.3 billion to a peak of $820 billion in a year. Can that happen again? Yes, it's likely IMO that the cap will hit $1.6 trillion this year but the problem is the percentage returns. Last year $820 billion increase netted an average increase of 5359%, meaning anyone who tipped money into crypto prior to Jan 2017 made decent money.

Now the issue is that a lot of people are hearing about these 'amazing returns' and want to get in on it for themselves with limited research and even less understanding of what they're investing in. Worse still they're investing a lot more money (because everything is more expensive) to chase a gain of only 100% assuming the market keeps the same pace it did last year and adds another $820 billion. If you tipped in $2k a year ago you'd have netted on average $107180 last year. This year if you wanted to make $107180 you'd have to tip in $107180 if you think the market will double. Hence why I think it's important for people to understand the market situation has changed dramatically, you won't get the same returns as last year and you're likely to lose a lot more if it doesn't work out.