i personally don't see the hype over polls. I think they're informative, but not necessarily predictive. i think a lot of people feel the same way.

I think texas would be a great play for biden - it is the republican hornet's nest, home to many large and expensive markets, and like a house or boat you end up spending way more cash than you'd anticipated on it - but not necessarily as part of his larger must-win strategy. smaller, targeted buys in select suburban media markets could offer more insight into signal confidence in the growing realignment of the white middle class and growing blue movement in texas, while forcing republicans to spend money on reassurance ads to voters in their largest state, electorally speaking. not to mention that would result in a however many million spent (4? 6? 17? 30?) multiplied's worth of media coverage. best case scenario, it could bait trump himself into spending his own time getting into it. i can't think of something that would anger trump more would be sleepy joe biden and kamala harris trying to steal his largest asset, texas. I see it as the chance to really muck things up on a national level. i cringe thinking about the optics of trump, working to reassure himself more than anything, thinking texas would be a good topic of conversation and tweet. if nothing else it could contribute to a repubs in disarray narrative, the president thinking texas is shaky. local biden involvement as part of a greater texas play at this stage could result in benefits exponentially more valuable than the investment. but i say not as part of his must-win strategy, biden spending more than just a little bit of a probationary amount right now would be a huge mistake.