Debunking myths: Why you're wrong about all 14 NFL playoff teams

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (bye) The myth: The Chiefs' offense is just as explosive without Tyreek Hill.

After the Chiefs traded away the dynamic Hill in the offseason, there were justifiable questions about whether they could maintain the level of offensive production to which they've become accustomed during the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs have answered these questions rather convincingly, as they had the best offense in the NFL this season, averaging a league-leading 413.6 yards and 29.2 points per game en route to a seventh straight AFC West title and the best record in the league.

Why it's wrong: It's no surprise that Mahomes and Andy Reid found a way to be as effective on offense post-Hill, but the passing game is definitely not as explosive as it used to be. Entering this season, Mahomes' average passing touchdown during his career had gone 19.5 yards. This season, that average was down to 12.2, the lowest such figure of his career. In each season from 2018 to '21, Mahomes threw at least 11 touchdowns from outside the red zone. His 56 touchdowns from outside the red zone over that four-year span were nine more than the next-highest total (Tom Brady, 47), and his TD-to-interception ratio on throws outside the red zone was 1.93. This season from outside the red zone he threw just seven touchdowns, a figure that ranked eighth in the league, and nine interceptions, for a TD/INT ratio of 0.78. The Chiefs still score plenty of points (more than anyone else, actually!), but one of the things that used to be true about them was that they could score from anywhere on the field. This season, that has not been the case.

  1. Buffalo Bills (vs. MIA) The myth: The Bills' pass rush is in trouble without Von Miller.

The Bills went out in the offseason and signed Miller in free agency because they felt they needed a "finisher" in the pass rush. They believed they'd been knocked out of the past two postseasons at least in part because of their inability to sack Patrick Mahomes in big, end-of-game situations. And when they went into Kansas City earlier this season and Miller helped seal the game in the fourth quarter, it looked as if the plan was going to work. But then Miller tore his ACL in a Week 12 victory over Detroit, ending his season and putting the plan in jeopardy.

Why it's wrong: From Weeks 13 to 17, the Bills pressured opposing quarterbacks on 33.8% of dropbacks, which ranked eighth in the NFL and was better than what they were doing when Miller was healthy. From Weeks 1 to 12, Buffalo's pressure rate was 29.2%, which ranked 17th in the league. The Bills also improved their pass rush win rate from 43.8% to 44.8% since Miller's injury. They would surely tell you they'd rather have Miller in there, and we'll see how things go when and if they have to beat their nemesis Mahomes in a playoff game. But the stats tell us Buffalo's pass rush is no worse -- and may even be a little better -- than it was before Miller got hurt.

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