Des Moines Register / Selzer Poll results

Essentially, everyone already knows Bernie in 2019, but in 2007 nobody knew who Obama was. But as people learned about Obama, they liked what they saw, especially compared to the competition, and he shot up in polls as his name recognition grew.

Bernie is in a very different situation now. His name recognition is at universal levels (due to his 2016 run), but he’s not ahead in the polls. Which means voters have “made up their mind” about him. He might be a second or third choice for them, or they may have written him off.

This makes it hard for Bernie to have the same rapid polling increased he had in his 2016 run. Instead of getting of his name out there, he needs to convince people who’ve put him down as their second or third choice to make him their first.

So in short, Obama in 2008 was skyrocketing because he was an outstanding candidate compared to the field, who started with low name recognition and benefited enormously as his national profile grew.

Sanders can’t grow that way this time, since everyone knows him. Instead, his path to victory requires converting Warren and Biden voters to his side, and snatching up the bases of smaller candidates as they drop out.

/r/SandersForPresident Thread Parent