Despite starting for an extra 2 seasons, Eli Manning has only thrown 7 more TDs than Philip Rivers, and has thrown 63 more interceptions

Ahh, see, now let me help you out.

Clutch is imaginary. Touchdowns are worth the same number of points in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Quarters as they are in the 4th Quarter. "Clutch" is dependent on a quarterback having achieved "game winning drives". How do you have a game winning drive? You are tied or losing in the 4th quarter and come back to win.

Now, Eli Manning has a lot of "game winning drives". You know who doesn't? Aaron Rodgers. Why? Because he scores all his points in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Clutch is most often associated with quarterbacks who struggle with turnovers. Sometimes it's a good QB with a terrible defense. Joe Montana's reputation for being "clutch" is most often associated with that. Peyton Manning's years with the Colts. But Eli Manning's career TD:INT ratio is 1.4:1. Meaning he throws 1.4TDs for every INT he throws. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, has a ratio of 4:1. Hence why nobody talks about Aaron Rodgers as being "clutch".

See, "clutch" comes from the idea that a quarterback "plays well when it really matters". Except that "when it really matters" is "all the time", and if Eli Manning wasn't so good at almost losing games in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd by being a turnover machine (he's the worst in the league among veteran starters, falling just behind Jay Cutlers 1.41:1), he wouldn't ever have the chance, or need, to come from behind and win.

"Clutch". The fake statistic. Eli Manning's "clutch win percentage" is 15.2% of his games. Jay Cutler's is 15.1% of his games. Tony Romo... 14.3% I mean, literally, when you look at the veteran starters in the NFL, the range of most "clutch" wins is seaparated by a gap of about 5%, ranging from 12-17. Thus, without any context, it's a completely imaginary statistic. Tom Brady (14.2%) is "clutch" because he's held teams together and throws 2.7:1 TDs:INTs. Eli Manning, on the other hand, tends to have to make up for his own mistakes since his ratio is about half of that. Literally. Tom Brady scores an average of 7 more points for his team for every time he gives the ball away. If you look at fumbles vs rushing TDs (14/96 vs 5/87), the numbers are even more lopsided.

/r/nfl Thread Parent