Christ, I didn't know it was that low. I will say that modelling is extremely difficult and should always be taken with a grain of salt but Philip Nolan's modelling has always left a lot to be desired. I mean the government didn't bring E&Y in at huge cost to do more modelling for the fun of it.

As we all know, NPHET's role is to advise consequences while the government weighs up the benefits against the consequences. If NPHET understates the consequences it doesn't really matter what their recommendation is considering we're always told that the government has to balance NPHET's recommendations with economic and social considerations and NPHET are always extremely conservative regarding the virus (I don't mean that as a slight, that is their role to care about covid first and foremost and not worry quite so much about the economy etc. And since the government have to worry about both they often must deviate from what NPHET reccomend)