to attack my own argument - analyst from ComScore claimed in late 2018 that "Between the box office receipts, merchandise sales and licensing agreements, Disney has more than made back it’s original investment"
The breadth of bearish statements on Star Wars' revenue declines is vitally important context to throwing around that 2015 number and commentary that was created surrounding that genuinely impressive 2015 number.
get the majority of the stake
No, that doesn't make conceptual sense. What you want to argue is that Disney is getting the majority of the profits but TFA generated 5 billion in sales, not 5 billion in profits. Your interpretation seems to imply that Disney would be making 50 cents off of every 1 dollar can of Star Wars branded Pepsi. something in the range of 5% makes a lot more sense to me as a rough estimate (probably understates 2015 revenue and overstates 2016 revenue).
There's more raw numbers if you look hard enough, some things are behind paywalls but yes I'm pretty confident that Disney has recouped it's initial payment for Lucasfilm.
Hence my vague references to past work. I didn't do anything special but I didn't see how the (again, non-theme park) revenues would get you to 2.5 billion in pure profits.
I'd defer to any actual high quality calculations/dives but I just don't see the path to being already "profitable" when considering Star Wars purchase price. I can see how Star Wars would have already made back the money under bullish assumptions made in the wake of TFA's massive success
decline versus bad
I think it's more complicated than that especially if you're talking about companies that actually bought the rights to use the IP instead the IP holder (hence why Hasbro is pretty clearly saying bad not decline). It's also worth pointing out that a lot of these problems aren't even Disney's fault. They didn't force Toys-R-US into bankruptcy or force EA to tank sales of a Star Wars multiplayer shooter or create the conditions for declining home video sales (which, of course, is covered in your box office profit numbers).