Dreger on TSN1050 says there's been some speculation that there's been a 3 year deal on the table, with an AAV around 9.5M. Dreger thinks there's a slight chance something gets done before training camp.

otherwise all those seasons will do is raise his price further in 3 years.

Looking at our cap situation I don't think that actually matters too much, from management perspective. This year was our first big crunch with the big three needing contracts by season start. Marner's will be last, which will effectively "lock us in" roster wise for the time being. The next big crunch is next year, when pretty much our entire D core minus Rielly is up for new contracts, plus a bunch of forward depth. After that there's not really another hard hitting year in terms of a bunch of contract renewals all at the same time.

If you view getting past next year's round of contracts as the next big hump, it actually makes zero difference from a wiggle room perspective for the Leafs if Marner takes 9.5M on a year deal or on a long term one, at least if you view the next 5 years that AM is locked up as the most important to contend within. At that point you're basically just locking up Marner through the turbulent period and saying let's revisit this in a few years. He'd still be an RFA at that stage too.

A 3 year deal doesn't strike me as likely simply because that means he renegotiates the same year Rielly does. A 4 year deal at 9.5 I could see being on the table though. That would give Dubas slightly more room to navigate contracts like Rielly's while simultaneously keeping Mitch an RFA for his next contract. Which will be arbitration eligible, meaning he won't get to eschew all comparables like he's attempting to do currently.

It's not necessarily all about the raw AAV #, but how it fits into the current contract structure the team is navigating. The obvious biggest risk with a 4 year deal is you'd have to keep the # low enough to have a chance to re-sign Matthews the year after. But as we all know, 4 years is a lifetime in hockey with regards to the cap and how it can be navigated. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 4 year deal around 8.5-9.5 inked at some point.

/r/leafs Thread Parent