Early voting hours extended for the next three days in Harris County

The excuses have begun:

Dan Hopkins Nov. 3, 9:33 pm

It sure seems like the polls missed in Florida — and possibly elsewhere, too. Which raises a question: How do the polls miss? One thing that’s critical to know is that nowadays, response rates to surveys are very low. Even high-quality surveys get response rates of 2 to 3 percent. And it’s really hard to recruit Americans who don’t like politics — which, to be fair, is most people, though not most FiveThirtyEight readers. I recently started with a sample of 10,000 Pennsylvania voters who had voted in only one recent election. I then sought out information on their email addresses before using Facebook to try to recruit them to take a survey. Around 1,200 people saw my ad, 48 clicked, 6 completed the survey. Today’s pollsters do innovative work but on a very hard problem.

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