Can someone check my calculations? I haven't gone through all the calculations but the author claims that Nadal's 2013 Roland Garros was worth 1.65 slams because he drew "Mr Wawrinka and a peak-form Mr Djokovic in the quarter-final and semi-final rounds."
I used elo ratings going into Roland Garros for the calculations. The probability that player A defeats player B if player A's elo rating is X and player B's elo rating is Y is 1/(1 + 10Y-X). Source.
Nadal's opponents were
Round | Opponent |
---|---|
R1 | Daniel Brands |
R2 | Martin Klizan |
R3 | Fabio Fognini |
R4 | Kei Nishikori |
QF | Stan Wawrinka |
SF | Novak Djokovic |
F | David Ferrer |
Using the author's methodology...
Round | Nadal's clay elo | Opponent's clay elo | Probability | Points awarded |
---|---|---|---|---|
R1 | 2649 | 1758 | 0.994 | 0.006 |
R2 | 2649 | 1692 | 0.996 | 0.004 |
R3 | 2649 | 2022 | 0.974 | 0.026 |
R4 | 2649 | 1994 | 0.977 | 0.023 |
QF | 2649 | 2206 | 0.928 | 0.072 |
SF | 2649 | 2413 | 0.796 | 0.204 |
F | 2649 | 2355 | 0.845 | 0.155 |
His total comes out to 0.491 points. Adjusting with the average difficulty of a slam, this becomes 0.399.