So many issues. First, he assumes only the good players will switch specs and not the bad too. Second, he mentions simulations, but then focuses only on logs. Simcraft results are far more realistic for potential output. Logs are always prone to cheese or the unique challenges of specific encounters. I looked at some of the top frost mage parses on Mythic Krosus when I was switching over from Fire. None of them were doing f*}%]#¥ mechanics. They moved left or right just enough to avoid the laser and tunneled boss even when soaks went out so they could extend Icy Veins pretty much the entire fight. Top 25% parses tell you a lot more about the performance of a particular spec, but nobody I know who's serious about their spec is going off logs. They're simming gear and looking at comparative sim results for various specs. As a mage I knew it was time to switch when Fire was putting out 610k in 7.1.5 sims while Warriors had two specs over 900k and Frost was over 750k. Logs just confirmed that when I saw most fire mages getting early mythic Krosus kills we bottom 2-3 dps in their groups.