Electric jets: Getting inside Elon head.

Ignore first principles, because if you haven't spent a lot of time studying and learning physics/engineering, first principles will be meaningless to you and you won't be able to adequately evaluate what they mean. I don't mean any offense by that.

So here's why electric airplanes aren't happening. Airplanes are perhaps one of the most tightly optimized pieces of equipment most of us come into contact with on a regular basis. That optimization focuses on the most important aspects to an airline, which is passenger safety and low operating costs (which in turn means high fuel efficiency). You're not going to get any easy improvements to your modern jetliner right now, because the major companies have spent billions on small-percentage increases in these metrics. A 2% increase in fuel efficiency is huge.

Ok you say, but that's built around a fuel-powered aircraft. What if we filled it with batteries? That's where the energy density that was mentioned earlier comes in. You want to match the amount of energy needed to fly the aircraft with batteries, and you'll need 5-10 times the mass of the fuel system to do it. If that number was something like 1.2x, you might see commercial electric aviation happening. But because the largest optimization gains have already happened, there's nowhere else to take from. You'd end up with a solid battery with wings and no passengers that still only makes it halfway from Chicago to Milwaukee.

The are certainly breakthroughs to come in aircraft technology, and maybe a charismatic billionaire will get us there. But it won't be coming anytime soon - it will take many many many 2% improvements on both the plane and battery side for us to get there.

/r/AskEngineers Thread Parent