ELI5: If I was hypothetically held at gun/knife point by a kidnapper who wanted a kid I was with, should I give him the kid, and risk him being lost, or refuse, and risk getting shot?

yeup, it is almost always tactically superior to let someone who wants something take it. The attacker is then burdened with the problem of defense (to which most respond with running evasion, but try doing that with a child.) This is why almost all trained personnel will not resist if the attacker clearly only wants something from them, and why the counter strategy is to pretend you only want something, but actually want to kill them, and do so immediately after they disarm themselves or reveal what you wanted to identify. This problem of defending a principal is also why body guard/escort duties are the most difficult to succeed at.

Give the child, and harass/tail the kidnapper while calling reinforcements.

Even better is that this is happening in a museum. Amber alerts are forced SMS messages, and if the teacher is quick, the kidnapper could easily be trapped as the museum goes under lockdown and everyone in a multi mile radius gets a description (in case the kidnapper escaped the museum.)

Without a running van and driver waiting at a close exit, the odds are low of this kidnapping working, and frankly it sounds like slow day news/talk show fiction. Most kidnappings in the US are by someone who knows the child, and already has some, if not very close, acquantance with them. So, this person would most likely be a mother taking custody against her (ex)husband and possibly the court's wishes. In any case, the odds are low any harm will come to the child except by law enforcement and other persuers. The kidnapper is unlikely to wish to harm the child.

Creepy serial killer neighbors are both very rare, and not at all so brazen.

Children kidnapped for international trade are done suddenly, while they are walking alone or in small thin groups, normally along the road, van pulls up, people jump out, grab them, throw the child in, and drive off. No confrontation with authorities, other adults, cameras, ect.

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