About 70 million doses were delayed from the Q1 estimate, all of these are set to be delivered (just) in Q2. If we say an average of 45 days delay (possibly on the optimistic side) for each of those 70 million doses, that's a 31.5 billion euro fine just for Q1, and deliveries were set to be delayed for Q2 and Q3 as well, to a greater degree. The total fine here would be potentially over 100 billion euros.

Am I not undestanding something incorrectly ? The EU expected 90 million doses from AZ in Q1. Out of those 90 million only 30 had been delivered. So 60 million short.

In Q2 the EU expected 180 million doses. AZ is supposed to deliver only 70 million doses in Q2. So how are they making up for the missed doses from Q1 in Q2 ? They are 60 million doses short in Q1 and will be 110 million doses short in Q2. So by the end of Q2 the initial expectations will be missed by a total of 170 million doses.