It's a great breakdown, but feels a little too focused on the Kii... which isn't even in the crate.
Here are some stats that are worth knowing: If the ONLY thing you care about are the gold text items.. 7.4% chance If the ONLY thing you care about are the ships + comm/insignia. 3.25% chance If the ONLY thing you care about are ships...1.35% chance.
Which means if you buy 10 fall crates, then these are your odds: Happy Sad 53.64% 46.36% 28.14% 71.86% 12.44% 87.56%
50 crates? Happy Sad 97.86% 2.14% 80.83% 19.17% 48.54% 51.46%
The math is simple. Happy = =1 - (1 - (chance) )crates opened eg: 1-(1-7.4)50 = 97.86%
Mind you, this is likelihood to get ONE result. This math doesn't look at chances of getting more than one. But since my loot luck is terrible, all I focus on is getting just the one.