Federal Projection (338Canada) - CPC 152 (35%), LPC 129 (30%), BQ 30 (7%), NDP 25 (21%), GRN 2 (4%), PPC 0 (3%)

An electoral result such as this one would be a gift to the Bloc Quebecois.

Liberal minority would require the support from both the NDP and the Bloc. Giving the Bloc a lot of power since it is not worried about opinions in the rest of Canada, unlike the NDP is.

The only possible ally to a CPC minority would also be the Bloc. I doubt the NDP would support the CPC and the Libs could potentially support some policies but working as a coalition would be suicidal for a party wanting to form government.

As for the Bloc and a CPC minority, the BQ can always say : "we are trying to make government work, people don't want another election" while it corners the CPC on giving Quebec even more autonomy.

Quebec's stated demands to Ottawa

  1. For Quebec to collect and transfer federal income tax in the province.
  2. For Quebec to gain greater control over immigration in the province.
  3. For Ottawa to pay the cost of caring for refugee claimants crossing through Roxham road in Quebec ($300 million plus).
  4. Application of Bill 101 within federal workplaces and institutions in Quebec, forcing federal workers to work in french.

What the Bloc could possibly want also

  1. Withdrawal of the federal government and of its funding from Bill 21 judicial contestation.
  2. Possible transfer of unemployment insurance under Quebec's jurisdiction for Quebec workers with the transfer of existing funds.
  3. Formal Constitutional recognition of Quebec as a Nation, entailing its right to govern itself and to refuse national policies that would "hurt its status as a Nation".

A CPC minority supported by the Bloc would be a bonanza for Quebec.

Although, the CPC could also pass a deal with the Libs to block the demands from Quebec.

/r/CanadaPolitics Thread Parent Link - 338canada.com